NT Web times tends towards pragmatism when it comes to predicting election results. While the pollsters are hyperactive at present both here and in the USA it is true that the only poll that really counts is the one on Election Day at the ballot box. With that disclaimer I will bravely predict the following :

a) Analysis of the Electoral College leanings in the US puts George Bush well in front of John Kerry who needs a near miracle to regain enough states to get him over the line. It is a requirement in American Election campaigns that Electoral College appointees vote with the singular majority vote of the State (the exceptions being in Maine and Nebraska). In that instance the following current state of affairs is revealing:

Bush has 210 of the required 271 college votes needed to win. Kerry has 189. Undecided states are those where neither candidate commands 50% or better of the poll. There are currently 13 States in that category and they are responsible for delivering 142 college votes - enough for either candidate to take victory. Polls in those marginals however reveal the following. Bush has the lead in 8 of the 13 states (83 Votes).Kerry has the lead in 3 states (50 votes). 2 states are statistical ties (9 votes). Even if Kerry were to win those he still trails badly. Only a late surge of substantial proportions by Kerry can hope to gain him the presidency. He needs to claim states Bush currently holds by 3 percent or more. PREDICTION : BUSH Easily. (Great value at between $1.50 and $1.66 on various Internet betting sites for the punters among you.)

b) John Howard is a strong bookies (and large punters) favorite despite recent more favorable polling reports for Labor. Labor will need everyone of the predicted 80% preference flow from the surging greens vote in order to stand a chance. The pendulum margin however is pretty slim and looking at the marginal seats it appears Labour is making good gains in taking seats from the coalition. Solomon in the NT appears to be a strong likely gain for Labor at present (88 votes is unlikely to survive even the mildest swing away from the Govt). It appears another 3 marginals are likely to change hands. Unfortunately for Labor this is insufficient to take Government and it appears that the gains Latham has made recently have stalled in terms of polling popularity. PREDICTION : Howard by a whisker. (For the punters - $2.60 Labor appears a touch over the odds if you want a true gamble on the election - It is never certain which way the Australian Electorate will vote as Jeff Kennett (beaten 1/100 favorite) and John Hewson - the loser of the unlosable election will testify.)